Visual Marketing

The Art & Science of Forecasting Agency Pitch Opportunities

By June 23, 2016 No Comments

Daily Vista
 
This post has been written by Natalie Hogg, Editor & Lead New Business Analyst, DailyVista UK
 
For agency new business executives, there’s nothing worse than hearing about a missed opportunity to pitch a qualified account. It’s like being caught in a rainstorm without an umbrella, only worse. But what if you could avoid that predicament, by knowing which accounts would be experiencing a review or agency shift up to 18 months before the fact?
 
It may sound impossible, but in the same way that meteorologists rely on weather conditions to make informed predictions, there are triggers known to influence or precipitate a review.
 
How competitive is the market? How well is the current head of marketing delivering on objectives? These are just a couple factors that prospecting publication DailyVista takes into account when forecasting agency changes on the horizon. Advertisers need to change to grow, and they look to agencies to drive that change.
 
At DailyVista, we look at a range of predictors and convey agency change probability with a 1-100 scoring system (the higher the score, the higher the probability of a review). The highest-scoring accounts (those most likely to evaluate new partners in a shorter time frame) appear on our Vulnerable Account Index, or VAI.
 
These examples, from the VAI, illustrate unique factors that condition opportunities to get in front of potential new business partners.
 
Account in Jeopardy – Score 71: Jawbone struggles in an overcrowded market
 
The more crowded the market, the more innovative, creative (and sometimes, loud), the brand must be to break through. Especially when well-known names begin to struggle in the face of newer, smaller competitors on the rise, you can expect to see them changing creative direction (and agency partnerships) to combat that slump and maintain market share.
 
For Jawbone, which uses an in-house team, gaining marketshare has been nearly impossible in the saturated wearables space. Owning only 4% of the market in 2014, the brand put most of its resourced into its wearable athletic tech product and even sued market leader Fitbit at least three times. Still, the brand had to cut nearly 15% of its staff at the end of last year and is still struggling to drive consumer awareness and demand, despite owning an elite headphone and speaker portfolio.
 
On the Brink – Score 62: Hyundai hires CMO and appoints a small shop, but is still vulnerable
 
Even if a global brand has its AORs in place, there’s always a little room for speciality and per-project shops to join the party. In fact, when a vulnerable account appoints an agency it almost always leads to a series of agency shifts of new partnerships.
 
As for Hyundai, it first joined the vulnerable account list when former Jaguar global marketer David Pugh was named Hyundai UK’s new marketing director after seven-year head marketer Andrew Cullis left for SKODA. Simultaneously, the brand started investing more in its consumer shopping experience, increased digital spending by nearly 30% and showed a little more love to its sponsorship activity. Almost eight months later, Hyundai partnered with Vice Media to launch new hybrid electric car Ioniq this September. However, it is unlikely this is the only agency the brand will appoint and Hyundai will stay vulnerable for at least another three-to-six months.
 
Keep in Mind — All agency relationships are vulnerable
 
If a legacy agency is failing to produce content that engages the audience of choice, client-side decision-makers will be forced to re-evaluate the relationship, and again, in today’s fast-paced market, the trend is to cut ties rather than give second chances. A good example of this is bed retailer Dreams, which just cut ties with Creature London after just a few months of working together. According to their Marketing Director, Creature just wasn’t the right fit in terms of reaching their target audience, and so rather than spend more time moulding the partnership, the brand is evaluating its position as far as a replacement. This could lead to a whole new marketing strategy, so agencies of all kinds might get a green light now that the AOR is out of the picture.
 
To learn more about how agencies are using tools like DailyVista to win more business with UK advertisers, click here.

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